There has been a lot of doom and gloom lately. Perhaps a little more than is warranted. I forgo the traditional media as much as possible (to preserve my perspective and my sanity), but the opinions they espouse seem to have diffused out into the ether, subsuming everything. McCain is a Maverick! Palin is a reformer, an expert, an ideal leader! McCain and Palin - for rulers of the world!
The impression one might get, is that things are looking grim for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. And even for those of us who scrutinize and analyze what we are told by the tradition media, anxiety is rising. If not in fear of the probability of losing the election, then in fear of the possibility of losing the election. How truly terrible that would be. For us, for America, for the world.
So I would like to interject my thoughts into the dialog. They are more hopeful and optimistic than much of news and "analysis" floating around these days. However, I would contend that they are not unduly optimistic, and let me tell you why.
The election is won by electoral votes. No matter how well the republicans can drum up support with their (less than savory) campaign tactics, they do not yet seem to be targeting specific and meaningful states. The Obama campaign, conversely, has been all about microtargeting. Barack Obama has said before that he sees the presidential race as a series of state-sized races. This is already borne out in their specific state advertisements (Yuccata mountain in Nevada, DHL in Ohio, etc.) and campaign offices.
Now onward to the states themselves. In my opinion, Obama has a secure hold on 260 electoral votes. These are exactly the states that Al Gore won in 2000 (you'll note the number of EV votes is different due to the new census - Al Gore had 266EVs with this map). Of the states in this group, the only one that you could even argue about would be Michigan. I strongly believe that Michigan will end up giving it's votes to Obama and Biden this year. The only way that McCain could have broken in here is by moving towards the idealogical center. No matter how much spin we get, Palin is a polarizing choice. She destroys John McCain's shot at Michigan. If you are not convinced by this rhetorical argument, you can visit 538 and see that Barack Obama has held a lead in every poll taken since June. Not only is Nate's current prediction Obama +3.5, but throughout the season, Michigan has held steady at ~D+2. This means that Obama polls about 2 points better in Michigan than he does nationally. Or, that McCain would need to a 2 point popular vote lead in order to swing Michigan (not very likely).
With this 260 electoral vote base, let's explore the paths to victory. To get enough votes to win (which I will assume is 269 at this point), Obama would need to win just one of these competitive states (listed with their current 538 projections, which I hasten to add, are slightly, artificially high due to the timing):
Colorado (O+1.8)
Virginia (O+1.7)
Ohio (O+1.1)
Florida (M+1.8)
North Carolina (M+2.4)
Indiana (M+4.1, I will work to justify this inclusion later)
If you were to assign a 50/50 shot to each of these state (a silly thing to do, but it illustrates a point), then the chance of Barack Obama winning the election would be at least 98.5%. 98.5%! If Indiana is not included, the chance of Obama winning drops to a lowly 96.8%. But remember, this was a cartoonish idea that doesn't prove anything. Of these states, Colorado and Virginia are leaning toward Obama; Ohio seems to be a pure toss up; North Carolina and Flordia are leaning toward McCain; and Indiana is hovering on the edge of being a lock for McCain. A win in any of these states seals the deal for Obama.
For McCain to win the election, he must win ALL of those states. But wait, there's more! We are still left with a few competitive states, any one would which would not provide an outright win for Obama in and of themselves. They are:
New Hamshire (O+3.7; 4EVs)
Nevada (M+0.2; 5EVs)
Montana (M+1.2; 3EVs)
North Dakota (M+1.6; 3EVs)
Even if he lost all of the previous states, Obama could still pull off a victory by winning any 3 of these states, or simply Nevada and New Hampshire.
The purpose of that exercise was to express how many paths to victory Obama has. Even though no single one has a very high likelihood at this point (Colorado is the highest on 538 with a 64% chance of victory), taken together, the situation looks very, very good. If you think on all of these possibilities for a minute, you being to see the genius of Obama's plan. This is exactly what people meant when they spoke of "going on the offensive" or "changing the electoral map". John McCain must now play frenzied defense in every one of these states. For to lose any one of them (or two or three, in deference to our smaller states), would ensure an Obama victory. McCain must now spend resources in all of these states, and with only $86 million from here on out, that's going to be a tall order.
All of this talk about chances of victory does not even begin to consider Obama's force multiplier: the fact that he has an extremely strong ground game registering many new voters. Some have estimated that this might net him a few (2) percentage points in key states such as Virgina or North Carolina. While I think it is obvious that Obama has a stronger and more organized ground game, I don't know how to quantify this effect and so I have not tried to factor it in. Suffice it to say that I believe it works strongly in his favor.
I would like to mention one more factor, a geographical factor, that I believe weighs heavily in Obama's favor. If you look around key competitive states such as Nevada, Virgina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Indiana - you see densely populated states where Obama holds a large advantage. California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Illinois respectively (among others). Obama has been able to leverage the enthusiasm of volunteers in his strong states to fight in competitive states.
Consider Nevada. Silicon Valley for Obama has a weekly trip from the Palo Alto area to Reno for voter persuasion (which I will take part in when I return there). There are many other Obama groups from California that are organizing similar trips to other parts of Nevada, such as the infamous Clark county. Even if John McCain were to have a similarly excited volunteer force (and perhaps he does), where would they come from. Idaho? Utah? I'm sorry, but they just can't compete with the population of California.
Likewise, I have heard reports from my mother, who lives in Chicago, about many trips from the Chicago area to register and persuade voters in Indiana (she even canvassed in Indiana for the primary!). So while Indiana looks like it is going for McCain, I think that a large and motivated Chicago volunteer corps might be just the force we need to swing it back toward Obama. And the most recent poll M +2 sure is nice to look at, for what it's worth.
I would also like to give a tip of the hat to the volunteers who have gone far from home to work hard in states like North Carolina and Florida where we don't have a big neighboring Obama state. I spent a couple days in Raleigh helping my sister who spent two months registering voters there. That's hard work. Especially in the heat! Thanks to all of you who go out and do this.
If you're in one of those Obama states that's neighboring a competitive state, go to barackobama.com and see if you can find some events that would work. Flipping Colorado, or Ohio, or Florida, or Virgina, or North Carolina, or Indiana is all it takes. With a little help from everyone, we can win this. It looks good. Yes we can!